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<title-group><article-title>Challenges, Unresolved Open Problems, and Next-Generation Entropy Hydrology</article-title></title-group>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>A Mageed</surname><given-names>Ismail</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib>
<aff id="aff1">PhD, IEEE, IAENG and UK President of the ISFSEA Society, UK.</aff>
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<abstract><p>Hydrological systems are naturally complex with great spatial and temporal variation caused by several interacting processes. Often difficult to fully reflect this complexity and related uncertainties are conventional deterministic and stochastic hydrological models. A framework for measuring uncertainty, disorder, and information content inside hydrological processes based in thermodynamics and information theory is given by entropy. This work thoroughly surveys applications of entropy modeling in hydrology, therefore highlighting the unresolved issues and obstacles impeding its broad adoption. Additionally, it investigates the terrain of next-generation entropic hydrology, pointing out potential avenues for future development and research including Machine Learning (ML), multiscale analysis, and sophisticated data-driven techniques. Through the entropy perspective, the goal is to highlight the current state-of-art and plan a route for more strong, educational, and predictive hydrological research.</p></abstract>
<kwd-group kwd-group-type="author"><kwd>Entropy</kwd><kwd>Hydrology</kwd><kwd>Information theory</kwd><kwd>Uncertainty</kwd><kwd>Water resources</kwd><kwd>Maximum entropy principle</kwd><kwd>Open problems</kwd><kwd>Challenges</kwd><kwd>Next-generation hydrology</kwd></kwd-group>
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<sec id="sec-1"><label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
<p>Human civilisation, ecosystems, and life depend on water. However, because of the innate intricacy and variability of hydrological processes, knowing and controlling water resources presents a great obstacle. These processes are affected by a range of interacting physical, chemical, and biological elements across various scales, from rainfall production and infiltration to streamflow dynamics and groundwater movement. Although traditional hydrological models are very useful, they sometimes depend on simplified assumptions or empirical correlations that may not completely capture the system&apos;s real behaviour or the widespread uncertainties inside measured data <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-1">[1]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-2">[2]</xref>.</p>
<p>Over the last few decades, entropy has become a strong conceptual basis for measuring and interpreting disorder, uncertainty, and information content in complicated systems—including those seen in hydrology. Starting in thermodynamics with Rudolf Clausius and developed into information theory by Shannon <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-3">[3]</xref>, entropy offers a global measurement of the unpredictability or randomness of a system <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-4">[4–6]</xref>. From regionalization and network design to flood forecasting and water quality assessment, hydrology uses it over several fields <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-7">[7]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-8">[8]</xref>.</p>
<p>Although it is becoming increasingly well-known, entropy modelling in hydrology has its shortcomings and open questions. Difficulties with data needs, physical interpretation, computing intensity, and incorporation with other modelling approaches remain. This paper seeks to systematically answer these issues first by presenting a brief overview of established entropy applications, then by analyzing the existing open problems and challenges, finally by imagining the path of next-generation entropic hydrology. Through highlighting these important areas, this work hopes to inspire new research directions and speed up the integration of entropy concepts into mainstream hydrological science.</p>
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<sec id="sec-2"><label>2</label><title>Theoretical Foundations of Entropy in Hydrology</title>
<p>Two main interpretations of entropy—thermodynamic entropy and informational entropy—find major applications in hydrology. Though different in their roots, they both provide insightful observations about the behaviour of hydrological systems.</p>
<sec id="sec-3"><label>2.1</label><title>Thermodynamic Entropy in Hydrology</title>
<p>According to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, thermodynamic entropy holds that the entropy of an isolated system tends over time to rise, therefore indicating more or dispersion of energy. This usually refers in hydrological situations to processes including energy dissipation, evaporation, and water movement along a gradient. Some scientists have investigated the idea of Maximal Entropy Generation (MEP) as a guiding compass, implying that natural systems develop towards states that maximize the rate of entropy production <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-9">[9]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-10">[10]</xref>. This view offers a physical foundation for interpreting hydrological events including river network development or energy flux distribution. For example, soil hydrological processes generate entropy, therefore offering a thermodynamic framework for their mathematical representation <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-11">[11]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-4"><label>2.2</label><title>Informational Entropy (Shannon Entropy)</title>
<p>The widespread application of entropy in hydrology comes from Claude Shannon&apos;s information theory <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-12">[12]</xref>. Shannon entropy, H(X), quantifies the average uncertainty associated with a random variable X with a probability mass function P(x):</p>
<p>H(X) = − ∑ p(xi)logb(xi), (1)</p>
<p>where the logarithm has a base b, (often 2 for bits, e for nats). A higher entropy value means greater uncertainty or spreads in the distribution of the variable.</p>
<p>Among key information theoretic ideas drawn from Shannon entropy are:</p>
<p>I. Joint entropy (H(X, Y)) assesses the unpredictability of two or more randomly occurring variables taken together.</p>
<p>II. Conditional entropy (H(X ∣ Y)) measures the unpredictability of X given that Y is known.</p>
<p>III. Measures the amount of information one random variable contains about another. It estimates the lowering of uncertainty about one variable when the other is given.</p>
<p>IV. Distinguishing cause from effect, transfer entropy is an extension of mutual information that measures the directed transfer of information between two time series <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-14">[13]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-15">[14]</xref>.</p>
<p>These criteria offer strong instruments for studying dependencies, redundancies, and information streams inside sophisticated hydrological datasets and models <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-8">[8]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-16">[15]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-5"><label>2.3</label><title>Principle of Maximum Entropy</title>
<p>Jaynes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-17">[16]</xref> developed the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) in 1957 to show that when constraints are known about a situation the maximum entropy distribution best represents the available or missing information. Hydrology researchers find the principle most valuable for situations when data limitations exist because they can create unbiased probability distributions through known information <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-18">[17]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-19">[18]</xref>. The PME serves as a basis for determining channel velocities and predicting uncertain hydrological distributions and planning network optimization in various studies <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-20">[19]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-21">[20]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-6"><label>3</label><title>Applications of Entropy in Hydrology</title>
<p>Entropy modelling has proven itself useful in several aspects of hydrology and water resource management.</p>
<sec id="sec-7"><label>3.1</label><title>Hydrological Network Design and Evaluation</title>
<p>Technology&apos;s development has changed our means of living, working, and communicating. Artificial intelligence, Machine Learning (ML), and blockchain among other advances are changing businesses and providing fresh chances. Businesses hence must change to remain competitive. Companies wanting to flourish in the present market must embrace digital transformation rather than just an option.</p>
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<sec id="sec-8"><label>3.2</label><title>Rainfall-Runoff Modelling and Forecasting</title>
<p>To improve streamflow prediction and rainfall-runoff modelling, entropy concepts are becoming more and more employed. Even with scarce data, maximum entropy principles can be used to create physically plausible probability distributions for hydrological variables <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-18">[17]</xref>. The 16 river basins in the Indian peninsula, which make up roughly 52% of the nation&apos;s total land area and are home to more than half of its population, make up the case study area. A highly skewed distribution of water resources results from the region&apos;s characteristic monsoon climate, which is situated south of the Vindhya and Satpura mountain ranges (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Fig. 1</xref>) and features significant geographical and temporal fluctuation in rainfall and temperature.</p>
<fig id="fig1"><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p>Stream gauge locations in various basins across the Indian peninsula [17].</p></caption></fig>
<p>The full scenario of temporal record is visualized by <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Fig. 2</xref> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-18">[17]</xref>.</p>
<fig id="fig2"><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p>Records for both active and defunct stream gauge stations are available in 16 basins around the Indian peninsula.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="https://uda.reapress.com/public/journals/1/jats-figures/92/fig-1-cc1dffb8c55a.jpg"/></fig>
<p>The generated data was compared by using fuzzy and Shannon entropy-based approach), and portrayed by <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">Fig. 3</xref> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-18">[17]</xref>.</p>
<fig id="fig3"><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p>The Mahanadi basin&apos;s station priority ranks were compared using a fuzzy and Shannon entropy-based approach that considered nine bin size determination methods or formulas [17].</p></caption></fig>
<p>Information-theoretic measures such mutual information and transfer entropy can assess the predictive capability of models, quantify the information transfer from inputs (e.g., rainfall, temperature) to outputs (streamflow), and detect significant constraints inside hydrological processes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-22">[21]</xref>. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-23">[22]</xref>. Additionally used for streamflow prediction, particularly for identifying periodic and seasonal variations in time series data is entropy spectral analysis <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-20">[19]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-24">[23]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-9"><label>3.3</label><title>Water Quality and Environmental Systems</title>
<p>Entropy has been used to examine the complexity and information content of data on water quality. Changes in entropy can denote changes in environmental health or the existence of pollution <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-25">[24]</xref>. Entropy can be used to design ideal water quality monitoring networks, pinpoint essential sampling sites, and evaluate the spatio-temporal variance of pollutants <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-26">[25]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-27">[26]</xref>. The idea of water utility, a measure of water&apos;s usefulness, can also be related to entropy, suggesting that the degradation of water quality corresponds to an increase in entropy <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-28">[27]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-10"><label>3.4</label><title>Drought and Flood Analysis</title>
<p>Entropy offers strong instruments for describing spatio-temporal fluctuation and finding uniform zones in research on floods and droughts. Entropy, for instance, can be employed to assess drought intensity and length, therefore supporting regionalization initiatives for improved drought management <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-29">[28]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-30">[29]</xref>. Similarly, in flood frequency analysis, entropy ideas can obtain flood probability distributions, therefore accounting for maximum uncertainty based on observed data <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-31">[30]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-11"><label>3.5</label><title>Regionalization and Parameter Estimation</title>
<p>Regionalization methods are especially vital when data is limited in unmeasured basins. By helping to pinpoint hydrological resemblance among catchments, entropy-based techniques enable the transfer of information or model parameters from gauged to ungauged areas <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-32">[31]</xref>. By designing objective functions maximizing the common information between observed and predicted variables, the PME can also be used in hydrological model calibration—possibly resulting in more robust parameter estimates and better uncertainty quantification <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-33">[32]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-12"><label>4</label><title>Open Problems and Challenges in Entropic Hydrology</title>
<p>Although entropy modelling holds great promise for applications, there are several major open challenges and difficulties preventing its widespread adoption and more development in hydrology.</p>
<sec id="sec-13"><label>4.1</label><title>Physical Meaning and Interpretation of Entropy</title>
<p>One of the major difficulties is the obvious and steady physical interpretation of informational entropy in hydrological settings. Although entropy is a strong mathematical gauge of uncertainty, its clear translation into physical hydrological processes is not always easy <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-34">[33]</xref>. Is high entropy always indicative of disorder, or might it represent a complex, self-organizing system? One still-active area of study is the reconciliation of informational entropy with thermodynamic entropy, particularly in non-equilibrium hydrological systems <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-10">[10]</xref>. The findings obtained from entropy analysis could find it difficult to be entirely accepted among process-oriented hydrologists unless a more concrete physical foundation is established.</p>
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<sec id="sec-14"><label>4.2</label><title>Data Requirements and Discretization Issues</title>
<p>Data discretization—which can greatly affect the final entropy values <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-35">[34]</xref> — is often needed for entropy computations, especially for continuous variables. The selection of bin size or data partitioning technique can produce artifacts and biases, therefore difficult comparisons between several investigations or datasets. Although some discretization-invariant measures have been suggested <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-36">[35]</xref>, a commonly accepted and robust method of dealing with continuous hydrological data in entropy computations is still lacking. Reliable entropy estimation further calls for high-resolution and long-term hydrological data, therefore limiting their use in data-poor areas or for historical studies <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-1">[1]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-15"><label>4.3</label><title>Computational Complexity and Scalability</title>
<p>Calculating multivariate and dynamic entropy measures for large, multi-dimensional hydrological datasets can be computationally intensive <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-37">[36]</xref>. Efficient algorithms and computational frameworks are needed as hydrological models and datasets increase in complexity and size (e.g., high-resolution remote sensing data, large ensembles of climate model outputs) to enable entropy analysis in practical, real-world applications. Additionally need to be considered are the difficulties of applying entropy computations to distributed hydrological models <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-38">[37]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-16"><label>4.4</label><title>Selection of Entropy Measures and Constraints</title>
<p>There are several kinds of entropy (Shannon, Rényi, Tsallis, permutation entropy) with unique properties and sensitivities to data features <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-39">[38–40]</xref>. Often there are no clear instructions on how to choose the suitable constraints for maximum entropy applications and on which entropy measure is most suited for a particular hydrological issue <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-18">[17]</xref>. Choosing these policies and restrictions is subjective, which could produce varied opinions and perhaps conflicting outcomes.</p>
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<sec id="sec-17"><label>4.5</label><title>Integration with Process-Based and Machine Learning Models</title>
<p>Though entropy presents a strong perspective for data analysis, its smooth incorporation with existing process-based hydrological models and developing ML approaches remains an ongoing difficulty. Hybrid modelling methods, which combine physics-based constraints with data-driven ones, are promising but call for careful consideration of how entropy could help to enable this synergy <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-33">[32]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-42">[41]</xref>. How might entropy be used to inform model architecture, decrease model uncertainty, or enhance the interpretability of &apos;black-box&apos; ML models? Some research shows that although ML models have great predictive performance, including physics-based limitations—even with entropy-based assessments—might be counterproductive if not well planned <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-43">[42]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-18"><label>4.6</label><title>Addressing Non-Stationarity and Non-Linearity</title>
<p>Strong non-linear dynamics characterize hydrological systems naturally non-stationary <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-44">[43]</xref>. Many traditional entropy models suppose stationarity, therefore restricting their utility to actual hydrological time series. For entropic hydrology to advance, it is imperative to create strong entropy measures that can properly capture time-varying information content, identify changes in system behaviour, and quantify non-linear dependencies <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-34">[33]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-45">[44]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-19"><label>5</label><title>Next-Generation Entropic Hydrology: Future Directions</title>
<p>The above-mentioned difficulties provide rich ground for future investigation, hence clearing the path for a more strong, insightful, and generally applicable &quot;next-generation&quot; entropic hydrology.</p>
<sec id="sec-20"><label>5.1</label><title>Dynamic and Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis</title>
<p>Beyond stationary entropy statistics, future research will concentrate on multi-scale entropy, which studies information at various temporal and spatial resolutions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-36">[35]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-46">[45]</xref>, and dynamic entropy, which measures changes in information content across time. This will help one to better grasp how hydrological complexity develops, how data travels across scales (e.g., from catchment to regional or daily to annual), and how dominant processes change under different conditions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-34">[33]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-42">[41]</xref>. Such methods might help locate key thresholds or tipping points in hydrology systems.</p>
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<sec id="sec-21"><label>5.2</label><title>Entropy-Informed Machine Learning and AI Integration</title>
<p>The potential for entropy and ML working together is enormous. According to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-23">[22]</xref>, entropy can be a useful method for feature selection, which reduces dimensionality and increases model performance by identifying the most informative hydrological variables for ML models.</p>
<p>Model evaluation and uncertainty quantification: evaluate ML model performance using information-theoretic metrics that go beyond conventional error metrics to gauge how effectively models represent the underlying information structure <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-33">[32]</xref>.</p>
<p>Readability of black-box models: utilise transfer entropy to gain insight into the causal links that intricate ML models learn, which will help you better understand how these models make decisions when hydrological forecasting <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-47">[46]</xref>.</p>
<p>Data augmentation and anomaly detection: leverage entropy to identify data points with high information content for targeted data collection or detect anomalous behaviour in hydrological time series <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-48">[47]</xref>.</p>
<p>More physically consistent and understandable hydrological forecasts may result from hybrid models that incorporate regularisation terms or entropy-based limitations into ML frameworks.</p>
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<sec id="sec-22"><label>5.3</label><title>Advanced Information-Theoretic Metrics and Network Analysis</title>
<p>Investigating sophisticated information-theoretic measures beyond the traditional Shannon entropy will be essential. Among these are:</p>
<p>I. Complex network theory: using network analysis techniques, in which information flow (measured by transfer entropy) represents links and hydrological elements (such as sub-basins and monitoring stations) are nodes. This can show how hydrological systems are connected, hierarchical, and vulnerable <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-49">[48]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-50">[49]</xref>.</p>
<p>II. Information bottleneck method: a method for finding important drivers in complicated hydrological systems that compresses pertinent information from one variable while maintaining as much information as possible about another <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-51">[50]</xref>.</p>
<p>III. Higher-order dependencies in hydrological systems can be revealed by measures that quantify the overall statistical reliance among several variables, such as multi-information and total correlation <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-52">[51]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-23"><label>5.4</label><title>Bridging Informational and Thermodynamic Entropy</title>
<p>In hydrology, explicitly bridging the gap between informational and thermodynamic entropy is a crucial future direction. To do this, frameworks that can quantitatively link information flow and uncertainty metrics to mass mobility, physical energy dissipation, and irreversible processes within catchments must be developed <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-10">[10]</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-42">[41]</xref>. By combining statistical and physical concepts, this could offer a more comprehensive knowledge of hydrological dynamics.</p>
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<sec id="sec-24"><label>5.5</label><title>Entropy in Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation</title>
<p>In hydrological regimes, entropy modelling can be extremely important as climate change brings hitherto unheard-of non-stationarity and uncertainty.</p>
<p>Quantify changes in hydrological complexity: Evaluate how climate change affects the complexity and information content of hydrological processes (e.g., increased unpredictability of extreme occurrences) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-53">[52]</xref>. Assess Adaptation methods: Under unpredictable conditions, evaluate the resilience and robustness of water management methods using entropy to find solutions that minimise vulnerability or maximise information gain <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-54">[53]</xref>.</p>
<p>Bias correction and downscaling: Use maximum entropy principles to bias correct hydrological predictions or probabilistically downscale climate model outputs, producing believable future hydrological scenarios with quantifiable uncertainty <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-55">[54]</xref>.</p>
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<sec id="sec-25"><label>5.6</label><title>Operationalization and User-Friendly Tools</title>
<p>More user-friendly software programs, standardised procedures, and strong application guidelines are required for entropy modelling to become a common tool in hydrological practice. To enable hydrologists and water resource managers to use entropy principles in their work, it will be crucial to provide open-source tools and educational materials.</p>
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<sec id="sec-26"><label>6</label><title>Conclusion</title>
<p>For measuring complexity, information richness, and uncertainty in hydrological systems, entropy modelling provides a strong and adaptable framework. Its uses range from enhancing forecasting precision and streamlining monitoring networks to comprehending hydrological complexity and guiding the management of water resources. A logical foundation for deriving probability distributions from sparse data is provided by the PME, while information-theoretic metrics such as transfer entropy and mutual information shed light on causal links and dependencies.</p>
<p>There are still a lot of unresolved issues and obstacles, though. These include resolving data discretisation sensitivities, controlling computational complexity, elucidating the physical meaning of informational entropy, and creating precise rules for choosing suitable entropy measures and limitations. Furthermore, it takes careful thought and creative solutions to integrate entropy with both the mainstream process-based models and the emerging discipline of ML.</p>
<p>The future of entropic hydrology, often known as &quot;next-generation entropic hydrology,&quot; is set to overcome these difficulties. Key directions include the development of dynamic and multi-scale entropy analyses, the deep integration of entropy with AI and ML for improved prediction and interpretability, the investigation of advanced information-theo ML retic metrics and network analysis, and a more explicit link between informational and thermodynamic entropy. As hydrological systems continue to encounter enormous stresses from climate change and human activity, careful application of entropy principles will be critical for building more robust, adaptive, and scientifically informed water resource management techniques. Entropy modelling can transform from a specialised field of study to a vital hydrological science foundation by adopting these developments, offering priceless insights into the complex dance of water on Earth.</p>
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<sec id="sec-27"><title>Consent for Publication</title>
<p>The author confirms consent for the publication of this work.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec-28"><title>Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate</title>
<p>This article does not include experiments involving humans or animals.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec-29"><title>Funding</title>
<p>This work was carried out without financial support from any public, commercial, or non-profit organizations.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec-30"><title>Data Availability</title>
<p>The data are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec-31"><title>Conflict of Interest</title>
<p>There are no competing interests to declare.</p>
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<sec id="sec-figures"><title>Figures</title>
<fig><label>Figure</label><caption><p>Image from the PDF file; its caption could not be matched.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="https://uda.reapress.com/public/journals/1/jats-figures/92/fig-2-bd545ea0acf6.jpg"/></fig>
<fig><label>Figure</label><caption><p>Image from the PDF file; its caption could not be matched.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="https://uda.reapress.com/public/journals/1/jats-figures/92/fig-3-7aed6a5f5acb.png"/></fig>
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